Chapter 2: Africa's future under a current policy trajectory - Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution and Climate Change for Sustainable Development in Africa

This chapter looks into the future. To this end, a “baseline story” is first established and an approach to scenario development is substantiated. The Baseline Scenario largely reflects a continuation of past trends in the evolution of fuel shares and energy intensities by sector. For example, in the household sector, the baseline shows a slow but incomplete transition from polluting fuels like wood, dung, and charcoal to cleaner alternatives like electricity, LPG, biogas, and solar.